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Treaties & Tradeoffs

History's big decisions, replayed without hindsight.

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Patterns in Strategy

Strategic constraints and failure modes that recur across eras, from Hannibal's Italy to the 1930s, each tested against a counterexample and its limits.

3 replays on file; the lead file comes first, the rest newest first.

Turner's painting of a storm over an Alpine pass: a dark vortex of cloud and snow above the small figures of an army.

Patterns in StrategyCase review

Hannibal After Cannae: Livy Says Rome Turned His Envoy Away

After Cannae in 216 BC, Livy says, Rome ordered Hannibal's envoy Carthalo out by nightfall and refused to ransom the captives. Polybius's 225 BC roll, added up.

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Image credit

"Snow Storm: Hannibal and his Army Crossing the Alps" by J. M. W. Turner — https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Joseph_Mallord_William_Turner_081.jpg — Public domain (J. M. W. Turner d. 1851; painted 1810–1812; US and EU: author died more than 70 years ago; faithful reproduction of a two-dimensional work, Tate N00490)

Lievens's painting of an elderly Roman in a red cloak stepping toward a young laurel-crowned commander on palace steps, a white horse behind him.

Patterns in StrategyCase review

Fabian Strategy: Rome Made a Second Dictator, Polybius Says

Fabius shadowed Hannibal in 217 BC without risking battle. Within months, Polybius says, Rome gave his deputy equal power: two dictators for one war.

Filed

Image credit

"Quintus Fabius Maximus, his horse, and his son" by Jan Lievens — https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Jan_Lievens_-_Quintus_Fabius_Maximus_-_Google_Art_Project.jpg — Public domain (painter d. 1674; public domain in the US and the EU; faithful reproduction of a two-dimensional work, Royal Palace of Amsterdam 9.03)

Illustration: a long cut-paper wall on a sand-table model, with a red paper arrow curving round its end onto open, flat ground. Illustration

Patterns in StrategyCase review

Maginot Line: It Pushed Germany to Belgium, Seramour Argues

Did the Maginot Line fail? Historian Michaël Seramour argues it did its job, pushing the 1940 attack into Belgium. What France knew, and what Gamelin chose.

Filed

Image credit

Illustration: Treaties & Tradeoffs. Generated schematic image — not a photograph or historical record. © Treaties & Tradeoffs, all rights reserved.