Treaties & Tradeoffs History's big decisions, replayed without hindsight. https://treatiesandtradeoffs.com/ 2026-11-02T00:00:00Z Berlin Airlift: About Two-Thirds Coal, by Air Force Counthttps://treatiesandtradeoffs.com/logistics/berlin-airlift/2026-11-02T00:00:00ZBy a 1949 US Air Force summary, the Berlin Airlift flew about 2.3 million tons into Berlin; about two-thirds was coal and about 20 to 23 percent food.Treaties & Tradeoffs Cuban Missile Crisis: A Struck Line on Turkey in RFK's Memohttps://treatiesandtradeoffs.com/negotiation/cuban-missile-crisis/2026-11-02T00:00:00ZCuban Missile Crisis, 27 October 1962: Robert Kennedy's memo says no quid pro quo on Turkey, but a crossed-out line names four or five months. FRUS shows how.Treaties & Tradeoffs East India Company: Its 1600 Charter Set a 15-Year Termhttps://treatiesandtradeoffs.com/case-studies/east-india-company/2026-11-02T00:00:00ZBy its printed text, the East India Company's charter of 31 December 1600 granted the trade for 15 years, revocable on two years' warning if unprofitable.Treaties & Tradeoffs Madness of Crowds, 1852 Edition: 3 of 16 Chapters on Moneyhttps://treatiesandtradeoffs.com/ideas/extraordinary-popular-delusions/2026-11-02T00:00:00ZIn the 1852 edition of Mackay's Extraordinary Popular Delusions, 3 of 16 chapters are on money, 13.6% of the words by our count. The longest is on alchemists.Treaties & Tradeoffs Fabian Strategy: Rome Made a Second Dictator, Polybius Sayshttps://treatiesandtradeoffs.com/patterns/fabian-strategy/2026-11-02T00:00:00ZFabius shadowed Hannibal in 217 BC without risking battle. Within months, Polybius says, Rome gave his deputy equal power: two dictators for one war.Treaties & Tradeoffs Hannibal After Cannae: Livy Says Rome Turned His Envoy Awayhttps://treatiesandtradeoffs.com/patterns/hannibal/2026-11-02T00:00:00ZAfter Cannae in 216 BC, Livy says, Rome ordered Hannibal's envoy Carthalo out by nightfall and refused to ransom the captives. Polybius's 225 BC roll, added up.Treaties & Tradeoffs Interchangeable Parts: Jefferson Described Them in 1785https://treatiesandtradeoffs.com/ideas/interchangeable-parts/2026-11-02T00:00:00ZJefferson's 1785 letter from Paris tells of musket-lock parts that fitted at random. Eli Whitney's contract came in 1798 and, by his biographer, took 8 years.Treaties & Tradeoffs Kodak Digital Camera: It Led US Sales in 2004, IDC Saidhttps://treatiesandtradeoffs.com/case-studies/kodak-digital-camera/2026-11-02T00:00:00ZKodak's 10-K, citing IDC, said it led US digital camera sales in 2004 at 21.9 percent. Its filings show its consumer digital arm losing money as film earned it.Treaties & Tradeoffs Louisiana Purchase: US Envoys Were Told to Buy New Orleanshttps://treatiesandtradeoffs.com/negotiation/louisiana-purchase/2026-11-02T00:00:00ZLouisiana Purchase: US envoys were sent for New Orleans and the Floridas; by Livingston's report, France asked if they wanted it all. Price: 60 million francs.Treaties & Tradeoffs Maginot Line: It Pushed Germany to Belgium, Seramour Argueshttps://treatiesandtradeoffs.com/patterns/maginot-line/2026-11-02T00:00:00ZDid the Maginot Line fail? Historian Michaël Seramour argues it did its job, pushing the 1940 attack into Belgium. What France knew, and what Gamelin chose.Treaties & Tradeoffs Roman Legion: Polybius's Wheat Ration, Converted to Tonneshttps://treatiesandtradeoffs.com/logistics/roman-legion/2026-11-02T00:00:00ZBy our conversion of Polybius's ration, a Roman legion's 4,200 foot soldiers needed about 3.5 to 3.9 tonnes of wheat a day, before cavalry and pack animals.Treaties & Tradeoffs Shipping Container: Court Says Rail Cars Went to Sea by 1932https://treatiesandtradeoffs.com/ideas/shipping-container/2026-11-02T00:00:00ZBy the Supreme Court's account, Seatrain's ships carried loaded rail cars from 1932, a predecessor's from 1929. Rail cars aren't containers; Ideal X came later.Treaties & Tradeoffs Silk Road: Richthofen Wrote of Silk Roads by 1877, Pluralhttps://treatiesandtradeoffs.com/logistics/silk-road/2026-11-02T00:00:00ZRichthofen wrote of Seidenstrassen, silk roads, on pp. 496–507 of his 1877 China; his map of the trade covers 128 BC–AD 150. Plus distances between six places.Treaties & Tradeoffs South Sea Bubble: Anderson Dates the Bubble Act Pre-Crashhttps://treatiesandtradeoffs.com/case-studies/south-sea-bubble/2026-11-02T00:00:00ZThe Bubble Act got the royal assent on 11 June 1720, by Adam Anderson's account, before South Sea stock reached its top and 110 days before his price of 175.Treaties & Tradeoffs Standard Oil: Court Upheld Its Break-Up by a Rule of Reasonhttps://treatiesandtradeoffs.com/case-studies/standard-oil/2026-11-02T00:00:00ZIn 1911 the Supreme Court upheld Standard Oil's break-up, reading the Sherman Act by a rule of reason. The 90 percent share was the government's allegation.Treaties & Tradeoffs Transcontinental Railroad: US Bonds Lent by the Mile, 1862https://treatiesandtradeoffs.com/logistics/transcontinental-railroad/2026-11-02T00:00:00ZThe 1862 Pacific Railroad act lent 16 US bonds of $1,000 a mile, treble that for 300 mountain miles and double between them. Our conversion: $16,000 to $48,000.Treaties & Tradeoffs Treaty of Versailles: It Set No Reparations Total in 1919https://treatiesandtradeoffs.com/negotiation/treaty-of-versailles/2026-11-02T00:00:00ZTreaty of Versailles: signed in 1919 with no reparations total. Germany owed 20 billion gold marks first; the commission fixed 132 billion in April 1921.Treaties & Tradeoffs Tulip Mania: Real Prices, a Ruin Story Traced to 1637 Satirehttps://treatiesandtradeoffs.com/ideas/tulip-mania/2026-11-02T00:00:00ZTulip mania prices were real: the best-evidenced top price for one bulb equaled about 4,100 days of a master's wage. The ruin story traces to 1637 satire.Treaties & Tradeoffs