Dossier term
The Known-Then Test
Updated
The known-then test is the name Treaties & Tradeoffs uses for its way of judging a decision: score the choice only on what its makers could know at the time, with each piece of that knowledge tied to a source. Anything that became known later, including how things turned out, stays out of the judgment.
How the test runs
The test starts by fixing the moment. A replay names the date of the decision and the person or body who held the choice. It then lists what that decider could know at that point, usually three to five items, and gives a source for each one. It sets out the resources at hand and the options that were on the table.
Only then is the choice judged, against that list and nothing else. If a piece of information reached the decider a week too late, it does not count. If an option was not open at the time, it is not held against anyone for missing it.
The card at the top of each article
Every article on this site carries a Known then: card near the top. The card is the known-then test set out as a table, with six fields: Date, Decider, Known then, Resources, Options on the table and Card sources. It has no row for the outcome. The sources on the card are the same ones listed at the foot of the article, so the card and the text cannot drift apart. How a replay works explains how to read each field.
What the test is for
The test exists to strip out the hindsight premium, the extra wisdom or folly a decision acquires once its ending is known. It does not promise that a decision was good. A choice can fail the test on its own terms, because the warning signs were already on the list.
Limits of the term
The known-then test needs a record. Where the documents do not allow the decider's knowledge to be rebuilt item by item, the site does not run the test and does not issue a verdict. When sources disagree about what was known and when, the card and the article show both versions with their sources.
Where to see it worked
Every replay on the site runs the test on its card. For a negotiation, see the Cuban Missile Crisis replay; for a market, see the tulip mania replay.